Structural Breakout with Wave Expansion on a Fundamentally Improving PSU Bank

High-Conviction Technical + Fundamental Alignment 📈 Elliott Wave Structure The weekly chart reflects a completed Wave (2) corrective phase, marked by a rounded base within the highlighted accumulation zone. Price has now pushed into early Wave (3) territory, confirmed by higher highs and higher lows. The recent breakout above the long-standing resistance zone (~160–162) signals impulsive strength, typical of Wave (3) initiation. The structure supports a roadmap of Wave (3) expansion → shallow Wave (4) pullback → Wave (5) continuation at higher levels. 📊 MACD Momentum Confirmation MACD on the weekly timeframe showed bullish divergence during the basing phase, where downside momentum weakened despite price volatility. The recent price surge is accompanied by positive MACD expansion, confirming that momentum is now supporting the breakout rather than diverging. This transition from divergence to expansion is often seen at the start of sustained trending phases. 📍 AVWAP as Institutional Support Anchored VWAP from the major swing low acted as strong dynamic support throughout the correction. Multiple reactions near this level indicate institutional accumulation, not distribution. The current price structure holds firmly above AVWAP, reinforcing acceptance at higher prices. Fundamental Strength Snapshot The bank has shown significant improvement in asset quality, with declining NPAs and better credit discipline. Earnings consistency and margin stabilization reflect operational turnaround. Improving return ratios and capital adequacy strengthen confidence in sustainable growth. As credit cycles expand, operational leverage positions the bank well for earnings acceleration.