Supreme Petrochem Cracks Below AVWAP — Wave (4) Damage, Mean-Reversion Setup Ahead 🧪📉

Technical + Structural View (Monthly Chart) Elliott Wave Structure: Supreme Petrochem appears to have completed a strong Wave (3) impulse into the ₹900+ zone, followed by a sharp Wave (4) corrective phase. The current leg down is impulsive in nature, suggesting Wave (C) of (4) is still playing out rather than a shallow pullback. Such corrections after extended trends are typically time + price consuming, not V-shaped. Key Resistance Zone: The ₹900–910 region (marked on the chart) represents a major supply / distribution zone, where price has faced repeated rejection. The failure to sustain above this level confirms trend exhaustion at higher levels for now. AVWAP Breakdown (Critical Signal): Price has decisively broken below the rising AVWAP (anchored from the prior major accumulation). This is a structural negative, indicating that the average institutional participant is now holding losses, increasing overhead supply on any bounce. Price Behavior & Volatility: The recent long red candles with expanding ranges point to forced unwinding rather than healthy consolidation. This typically leads to: A reflex bounce (mean reversion) Followed by range formation, not immediate trend resumption Support & Mean-Reversion Zone: The ₹480–520 region aligns with: AVWAP proximity Prior demand cluster 38.2–50% retracement of the entire impulse This zone increases the probability of a technical bounce, but not necessarily a new uptrend. Trend Context: As long as price remains below ₹750–780, rallies are likely to be counter-trend. A sustained move above this zone would be needed to re-establish bullish structure.