Tata Consultancy Services Limited (Monthly Chart)

CMP: ~₹2,613 Structure: Deep Correction Into Long-Term AVWAP Support 🔍 Big Picture (Monthly) After peaking near ₹4,600, TCS has: Formed a series of lower highs Broken major swing supports Entered a deep corrective phase Now price is testing a major Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) zone around ₹2,300–₹2,400. That zone is structurally important. 🧠 Why This Zone Matters Your AVWAP anchor (likely from COVID low or structural breakout phase) is currently near ₹2,317. Historically, monthly AVWAP levels often act as: Institutional cost basis Long-term mean reversion zones Cycle turning points Price is reacting right above that level. This is not random support. 📊 Structure Assessment Primary trend (long term): Still bullish Medium term: Bearish correction Short term: Oversold bounce attempt Key Question: Is this a dead-cat bounce or structural base formation? 📈 Bullish Scenario If price: Holds ₹2,300–₹2,400 zone Reclaims ₹3,000 Then we can expect: 🎯 ₹3,200 🎯 ₹3,400 That aligns with your projected arrow toward ₹3,200+. 📉 Bearish Risk If ₹2,300 breaks decisively on monthly close: Next major support: ₹2,000–₹2,100 zone That would mean full retracement toward pre-2021 breakout levels. 🔬 Comparative Strength Compared to: Bharat Electronics Limited → strong continuation Finolex Cables Limited → base breakout InterGlobe Aviation Limited → continuation breakdown TCS is in cyclical reset mode — not leadership right now. 🎯 Strategic View This is not a momentum trade. This is a cycle positioning trade. Ideal approach: Scale in near AVWAP support. Add only above ₹3,000 reclaim. 🧩 My Honest Take If Nifty stabilizes and global tech improves, this zone can produce a 20–25% rebound. But until ₹3,000 is reclaimed, this remains a corrective structure.