Technical Setup
Rounding Bottom Pattern: A classic bullish reversal pattern has formed over the past 12 months, with the stock bottoming around ₹125 in January 2025. The symmetrical curve indicates gradual accumulation and shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish.
Key Resistance Test: Price is currently testing the critical ₹170 horizontal resistance (red line), which has acted as a pivot since April 2024. A breakout above this level would confirm the pattern completion and signal a new uptrend.
Volume Divergence: While price has been consolidating near resistance, volume has been declining—typical behavior before a breakout. The recent green volume bars suggest buying interest is returning at this crucial juncture.
MACD Positioning: MACD remains below the signal line but is flattening near the zero level, indicating weakening downside momentum. A bullish crossover would provide additional confirmation.
Fundamental Strength
India's largest steel producer with integrated operations
Strong domestic demand driven by infrastructure push
Government capex cycle supporting steel consumption
Debt reduction focus improving balance sheet health
Tata Group backing provides strategic stability
Trade Setup
Entry Zone: ₹168-₹172 (on breakout confirmation)
Stop Loss: ₹162
Targets: ₹180 (ST) | ₹190 (MT) | ₹200+ (LT)
Risk-Reward: 1:2.5
Key Trigger
A decisive weekly close above ₹172 with strong volume would complete the rounding bottom pattern and open the path toward ₹185-₹190. The measured move from the pattern suggests potential upside of 30-40 points from the breakout level.
Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Conduct your own research before investing.