Thejo Engineering – Downtrend to Reversal Setup (Weekly)

1. Structure: Distribution → Downtrend Strong rally in 2023–24 → followed by clear lower high, lower low structure Price consistently trading below declining moving average (purple line) 👉 This confirms primary trend = bearish (so far) 2. Current Development: Early Base Formation Price has started holding near ₹1500–₹1550 zone (strong support) Attempting to break descending trendline 👉 This is the first sign of trend exhaustion, not confirmation of reversal yet 3. Key Technical Trigger The most important level here: Trendline resistance + horizontal zone: ₹1750–₹1800 👉 Only if price: Breaks AND sustains above this zone → Then structure shifts from bearish → neutral/bullish 4. Moving Average Insight Price still below long-term MA (~₹2300) Even after breakout, overhead supply exists 👉 Upside may come in phases, not a straight rally 5. Possible Scenarios Bullish Case (Trigger-Based) Break above ₹1800 Retest holds Then move towards: ₹2000 ₹2200 (major supply) Bearish Case Failure near trendline Break below ₹1500 👉 Then fresh downmove likely 6. Strategy Perspective This is where most traders go wrong: ❌ This is NOT a breakout stock yet ❌ Not suitable for aggressive buying now 👉 Best approach: Wait for confirmation breakout Or accumulate very slowly near support (only for positional investors)