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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

26th Apr · SEBI-Registered Analyst

This is a very clean and powerful structure on Vardhman Textiles (Weekly). Let’s break it down the way you would explain to clients:

VTL
Structure Overview You’re looking at a multi-month consolidation breakout with trend alignment, which is one of the highest probability setups. Price was stuck in a range (~400–560 zone) for a long period Multiple rejections near ~560 created a clear supply zone Strong base formation above rising 200 EMA (long-term support) Now we have a decisive breakout with momentum candle This is not a random move. This is absorption → expansion Technical Confluence (High Probability Factors) 1. Range Breakout Clean breakout above 561 resistance Previous multiple failures → now converted into strength Indicates supply exhaustion 2. Trend Alignment Price above: 20 EMA 50 EMA 200 EMA All EMAs turning upward → trend confirmation 3. Momentum Candle Strong bullish candle with expansion No upper wick → buyers in control Likely institutional participation 4. Structure Shift From sideways → impulsive move This is typically Wave 3 type behavior (if we apply Elliott logic) What Happens Next (Probabilities) Bullish Scenario (Primary) Small consolidation / retest near 560–570 Then continuation towards: 620–650 (short term) If momentum sustains → even higher extension possible Alternate Scenario (Healthy Pullback) Price may retest breakout zone (~560) As long as it holds → bullish structure intact Bearish Invalidation Weekly close back below 540–550 That would indicate false breakout Trade Logic (Professional View) This is not an early entry anymore. It’s a breakout confirmation entry. Aggressive Entry: On breakout candle (already triggered) Smart Entry: Retest of 560 zone Stop Loss: Below 540 (structure-based) Positioning: Add on dips, not on spikes Key Insight (Important for Your Clients) This is exactly the kind of stock where: Retail hesitates due to “already moved” Professionals buy because structure just completed The move hasn’t ended. The move has just started.

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