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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

18th Mar · SEBI-Registered Analyst

This is the monthly chart of Indian Oil Corporation Limited, and this is a high-probability reversal → breakdown structure.

IOC
1️⃣ Clear Pattern: Double Top (M Pattern) What you’ve drawn is: First peak: ~₹195 Second peak: ~₹190 Support (neckline): ~₹110 👉 This is a classic Double Top 2️⃣ What This Pattern Means After a strong rally: First top → profit booking Pullback → temporary support Second top → buyers fail to make new highs 👉 This shows: Demand is exhausted Supply is increasing This is a trend reversal signal (Bullish → Bearish) 3️⃣ Current Situation Right now: Price has sharply fallen from ₹190 Strong bearish monthly candle Heading toward ₹110 support 👉 Momentum has clearly shifted to sellers 4️⃣ Your Blue Arrow (Very Important) You marked: Fall toward ₹110 This is spot on as the first major level. 📊 Double Top Target Calculation Height: Top ≈ ₹190 Neckline ≈ ₹110 Range ≈ ₹80 Breakdown target: ₹110 – ₹80 = ₹30 (theoretical extreme) 👉 But practically: First target: ₹110 Next zone: ₹90–₹80 So your ₹110 projection = realistic & conservative 5️⃣ Confirmation Rule (MOST IMPORTANT) Pattern is confirmed ONLY if: 👉 Monthly close below ₹110 Until then: It’s still a “potential” double top 6️⃣ Key Levels Resistance: ₹180–₹190 (strong supply zone) Support: ₹110 (make-or-break) 7️⃣ Smart Money Perspective What institutions are doing: Distributing near ₹180–₹190 Trapping late buyers Now pushing price down 👉 Same story we saw in: Oil India Limited ONGC 8️⃣ Trade View (Pro Thinking) ❌ Avoid: Buying after big red monthly candle ✅ Watch for: Breakdown below ₹110 → strong sell signal Pullback to ₹170–₹180 → selling opportunity 9️⃣ Critical Comparison (Learn This) Stock Pattern Outcome Astral Limited Accumulation Breakout 📈 Oil India Limited Distribution Breakdown 📉 Indian Oil Corporation Limited Double Top Reversal 📉 🔟 Final Summary Factor Observation Pattern Double Top Neckline ₹110 Bias Bearish Target ₹110 → ₹90 Confirmation Monthly close below ₹110

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