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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

17th Mar · SEBI-Registered Analyst

This is the weekly chart of Oil India Limited, and this is a classic distribution

OIL
1️⃣ Big Structure First Phase 1: Strong Uptrend ₹350 → ₹750 rally 👉 Strong bullish phase (smart money entry) Phase 2: Distribution Zone (Your Box) Range: ₹350 – ₹500 Time spent: Long consolidation This is key → 👉 After a big rally, sideways = distribution (not accumulation) 2️⃣ What Smart Money is Doing Inside the range: Price repeatedly fails near ₹500 Creates lower highs Momentum weakens 👉 This shows: Buyers are getting weaker Sellers are slowly dominating This is supply absorption before breakdown 3️⃣ Current Situation Now look at the right side: Price again rejected near ₹500 Now moving down toward range support (~₹350) 👉 This is the final stage before breakdown 4️⃣ Your Red Arrow (Very Important) You marked a fall from: ₹450 → ₹320 zone This is technically correct logic. 📊 Range Breakdown Target Range height: Resistance ≈ ₹500 Support ≈ ₹350 Range = ₹150 Breakdown target: ₹350 – ₹150 = ₹200 👉 Conservative target: ₹300–₹320 👉 Aggressive target: ₹200–₹250 So your arrow to ₹320 is actually a safe target. 5️⃣ Key Breakdown Trigger Bearish confirmation ONLY if: Price breaks ₹350 with strong volume Weekly close below support Until then → still in range 6️⃣ Important Levels Resistance: ₹480–₹500 (strong supply zone) Support: ₹350 (make-or-break level) 7️⃣ Trade Logic (Pro View) ❌ Avoid: Buying in middle of range (₹400–₹470) ✅ Best Setup: Sell on: Rejection near ₹480–₹500 OR Breakdown below ₹350 8️⃣ Critical Insight (This is Gold) Compare: Stock Structure Astral Limited Accumulation → Breakout Oil India Limited Distribution → Breakdown 👉 Same “sideways chart” 👉 But context changes everything 9️⃣ Final Summary Factor Observation Pattern Distribution Resistance ₹500 Support ₹350 Bias Bearish Target ₹320 → ₹250

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