Currency Grow (CA & SEBI Reg IA Omkar Bhutada) ยท 26th Mar
๐ Trendline Breakout Brewing in a Fundamentally Strong Pharma Stock
ALIVUS
This chart is showing a high-probability multi-signal setup where technical structure and fundamentals are aligning for a potential upside move.
๐ Technical Breakdown
1. Elliott Wave Perspective
The stock appears to have completed a corrective Wave (ABC) structure.
The recent sideways consolidation (boxed region) suggests Wave B exhaustion.
Current price action hints at the beginning of Wave C upward, which typically carries strong momentum.
2. MACD Divergence (Hidden Strength)
During the consolidation phase, price made lower lows, but momentum (MACD) likely formed higher lows.
This indicates a bullish divergence, signaling that selling pressure is weakening and accumulation may be happening quietly.
3. AVWAP as Key Trigger Level
Price is now testing a downward sloping AVWAP / trendline resistance zone (~โน980โโน1000).
This level is critical:
Sustained breakout above this zone = trend reversal confirmation
It can act as a launchpad for the next impulsive move
๐ Price Structure Insight
Long-term: Downtrend
Short-term: Base formation + higher lows
Current setup: Compression near resistance โ breakout potential
๐ฐ Fundamental Edge
This isnโt just a technical play โ fundamentals support the story:
โ Strong ROCE indicates efficient capital usage
โ Consistent profit growth over multiple quarters
โ Sector tailwind (Pharma stability + demand visibility)
โ Likely institutional accumulation during consolidation
๐ฅ What This Means
If the stock:
Breaks and sustains above โน1000 zone
With volume expansion
๐ It can trigger a fast move toward โน1080โโน1150+ levels
โ ๏ธ Risk Note
Failure to break resistance may lead to continued range-bound movement
Always watch for false breakouts (bull traps) near trendlines
๐ง Simple Summary
Structure: Corrective phase ending
Momentum: Bullish divergence
Level: AVWAP breakout zone
Fundamentals: Strong backbone
๐ This is the kind of setup where smart money enters before the crowd notices.