Currency Grow (CA & SEBI Reg IA Omkar Bhutada) · 31st Jan
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Breaks Multi-Year Base — Fresh Wave (5) Re-Rating Setup 🚀
UJJIVANSFB
Multi-Signal Technical + Structural View (Monthly Chart)
Elliott Wave Structure:
Ujjivan SFB has completed a broad, time-consuming Wave (4) correction spanning several years, forming a rounded accumulation base between ~₹15–₹60. The recent decisive breakout above ₹61–62 confirms the initiation of Wave (5) — typically the phase where price catches up with fundamentals.
Base Breakout & Supply Clearance:
The ₹60–62 zone was a long-standing supply wall, rejecting price multiple times since 2020. The current strong monthly close above this level signals:
Complete absorption of legacy supply
Transition from distribution to fresh accumulation
Entry into price discovery zone
Momentum Expansion (Price Behaviour):
The wide-range bullish candle after prolonged compression reflects stored energy release. Such structures often lead to fast vertical moves, especially in beaten-down financials entering re-rating cycles.
Measured Move Projection:
The height of the multi-year base projects a medium-term upside zone of ₹90–95, aligning with:
The measured breakout target on the chart
~45–50% upside from the breakout area
Typical Wave (5) expansion magnitude after deep corrections
Risk / Invalidation Level:
As long as the stock holds above ₹58–60 on a closing basis, the bullish Wave (5) structure remains intact. Any sustained move back below this zone would imply a failed breakout.
Overall View:
Ujjivan SFB is shifting from survival → stabilization → expansion. Multi-year bases in financial stocks often precede sharp re-rating moves, especially when credit cycles turn supportive. This looks less like a trade and more like the early innings of a structural trend.
When price spends years building a base, it doesn’t move in steps — it moves in leaps. 📈🔥