Currency Grow (CA & SEBI Reg IA Omkar Bhutada) · 9th Jan
Wave Breakout Brewing on a Fundamentally Strong Exchange Stock
BSE
Technical + Fundamental Confluence Analysis
📈 Elliott Wave Structure
Price action is completing a larger Wave (2) corrective phase within a broader bullish cycle.
The marked path suggests the start of Wave (3) after a successful retest near the breakout zone (~2,950–3,000).
Sub-waves (1) and (2) indicate a classic breakout → pullback → expansion setup, with projected Wave (3–5) targets much higher as momentum builds.
📊 Momentum & MACD Insight
MACD shows a bullish divergence during the recent consolidation: price made marginally lower lows while momentum held higher.
This divergence aligns with the rounding base and signals strength beneath the surface, often seen before impulsive Wave (3) moves.
📍 AVWAP as a Key Anchor
The anchored VWAP from the major swing low acts as dynamic support throughout the base.
Price has respected AVWAP multiple times and is now attempting to expand above it with rising structure, reinforcing bullish acceptance at higher levels.
📐 Moving Average & Structure Support
Short- and medium-term EMAs are curling up and crossing positively, while price remains well above the long-term trend average.
The large green highlighted zone reflects accumulation within a higher timeframe uptrend, not distribution.
Fundamental Strength Snapshot
The company operates a near-monopoly core business, giving it strong pricing power and consistent volumes.
High ROCE and asset-light model support superior capital efficiency.
Consistent profit and cash flow growth over multiple cycles provides confidence that technical breakouts are backed by real earnings power.
Balance sheet strength allows the business to benefit disproportionately from rising market participation.