Currency Grow (CA & SEBI Reg IA Omkar Bhutada) · 3rd Oct
Writing
NATIONALUM
🔎 Technical Outlook
Pattern Formation: NALCO has given a Cup & Handle breakout around the ₹220–₹225 zone with strong weekly volumes, indicating institutional participation.
Measured Move Target: The height of the cup projects an upside target near ₹300 (approx. 35% gain).
Elliott Wave Structure: The corrective phase (Wave 2) appears to have ended, and a fresh Wave 3 impulse rally may be starting.
MACD Divergence: Positive divergence confirms bullish momentum with higher lows in MACD while price was consolidating.
AVWAP Support: Anchored VWAP from prior swing low is trending below ₹200, suggesting strong accumulation zones have formed.
🏦 Fundamental Strength
Strong Balance Sheet: NALCO maintains low debt levels with healthy cash reserves.
Commodity Upside: Aluminium demand recovery globally and rising LME prices add tailwinds.
Consistent Dividend Payouts: Acts as a defensive advantage, making it attractive for long-term investors.
High ROE/ROCE: Efficient capital utilization adds to investment comfort.
📈 Summary
NALCO is showing a textbook Cup & Handle breakout, backed by strong fundamentals and momentum signals. If the breakout sustains above ₹220, the stock has potential to rally towards ₹280–₹300 levels in the coming months.
Key Levels:
🔹 Support: ₹200 (Cup handle low & AVWAP support)
🔹 Breakout Zone: ₹220–₹225
🔹 Target: ₹280–₹300 (measured move projection)