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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

3rd Oct · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Writing

NATIONALUM
🔎 Technical Outlook Pattern Formation: NALCO has given a Cup & Handle breakout around the ₹220–₹225 zone with strong weekly volumes, indicating institutional participation. Measured Move Target: The height of the cup projects an upside target near ₹300 (approx. 35% gain). Elliott Wave Structure: The corrective phase (Wave 2) appears to have ended, and a fresh Wave 3 impulse rally may be starting. MACD Divergence: Positive divergence confirms bullish momentum with higher lows in MACD while price was consolidating. AVWAP Support: Anchored VWAP from prior swing low is trending below ₹200, suggesting strong accumulation zones have formed. 🏦 Fundamental Strength Strong Balance Sheet: NALCO maintains low debt levels with healthy cash reserves. Commodity Upside: Aluminium demand recovery globally and rising LME prices add tailwinds. Consistent Dividend Payouts: Acts as a defensive advantage, making it attractive for long-term investors. High ROE/ROCE: Efficient capital utilization adds to investment comfort. 📈 Summary NALCO is showing a textbook Cup & Handle breakout, backed by strong fundamentals and momentum signals. If the breakout sustains above ₹220, the stock has potential to rally towards ₹280–₹300 levels in the coming months. Key Levels: 🔹 Support: ₹200 (Cup handle low & AVWAP support) 🔹 Breakout Zone: ₹220–₹225 🔹 Target: ₹280–₹300 (measured move projection)

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