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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

28th Apr · SEBI-Registered Analyst

You’re looking at a trend reversal + supply absorption setup.

RKFORGE
Structure Insight (What’s Really Happening) 1. Prior Downtrend Clear sequence of lower highs + lower lows Price trading below falling long-term averages 👉 This was a Stage 4 / distribution → decline phase 2. Base Formation (500–580 Zone) Multiple months of sideways movement Strong support around 500 Repeated rejection near 580 👉 This is accumulation after a downtrend, not continuation 3. Breakout + Momentum Shift Strong bullish candle closing above 580 resistance Price reclaiming: 20 EMA 50 EMA Moving toward 200 DMA 👉 This is the first real sign of trend change Why This Setup Is Different (Important for You) Compared to your other stocks: Triveni / NLC / ONGC → already in strength phase Nitin Spinners / Aurobindo → base breakouts Ramkrishna Forgings → EARLY REVERSAL 👉 Higher upside potential 👉 But lower confirmation (more risk) Key Technical Signals EMA alignment starting (bullish crossover phase) Breakout above supply zone (~585) Price approaching 200 DMA (~575–580) 👉 If it sustains above 200 DMA → trend confirmation Measured Move Logic Range: 580 – 500 = 80 points Target: 580 + 80 = ~660 👉 Practical zone: 640–680 Execution Strategy Best Entry (Professional Approach) Retest of 575–585 zone Aggressive Entry Partial at current levels (~600) Invalidation Sustained move below 540

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