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DEEPAK PAL

4th Apr · SEBI-Registered Analyst

"INDIGO - भारत की उड़ान, आकाश का राजा, हर सफर को बनाए आसान!"

Technical Analysis The daily chart reveals a decisive oversold bounce after consecutive 2-day declines from recent highs around ₹5,000, evidenced by substantial volume surge and bullish engulfing candle breaking above key moving averages including the 20-SMA. Hammer formation at ₹4,800 support zone tested the 50-SMA effectively, with RSI(14) at approximately 32 signaling deeply oversold conditions accompanied by bullish divergence patterns. MACD exhibits histogram expansion towards positive territory while Stochastic remains entrenched in extreme oversold zone.

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News & Events April 2 saw IndiGo revise fuel surcharges upward due to ATF prices doubling amid Middle East tensions, impacting affordability on domestic/international routes while canceling 500+ flights from airspace closures affecting 30% capacity. March 8 airspace chaos and $110 Brent crude spike triggered 8% share plunge to ₹4,050 lows. Government intervention mitigated April fuel hikes, supporting short-term stability.
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Micro & Macro Events Micro catalysts include Q4FY26 results expected late April, fleet delivery milestones, and dividend policy updates, complemented by macro influences such as ATF pricing trajectory, RBI monetary policy affecting disposable income, monsoon tourism patterns, and geopolitical airspace restrictions.
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Global Cues & War Impact Middle East conflict severely disrupts 45% international routes through airspace closures and Pakistan restrictions, forcing costly rerouting while Brent crude surpassing $110 drives ATF cracks doubling, compressing margins by 5-7%. Fuel costs now constitute 45% operating expenses, with government interventions providing temporary relief but sustained war threatens summer travel demand and profitability.
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Daily technical chart analysis of INDIGO on 04042026.pdf
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