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DEEPAK PAL

5th Apr · SEBI-Registered Analyst

"JIO FINANCIAL - डिजिटल धन का भविष्य, जियो उपयोगकर्ता का विश्वास!

Detailed Technical Analysis Daily chart displays textbook oversold reversal pattern post-2-day 8% correction from ₹245 resistance, featuring high-volume bullish hammer/doji combo precisely at ₹223 strong demand zone (prior swing low + 61.8% Fib retracement). Multi-timeframe analysis confirms: 5/10-SMA death cross ₹231 (bearish), price below 20-SMA ₹235/50-SMA ₹250 channel midline, yet 200-SMA ₹220 holds as final support. RSI(14) 41 neutral-bullish divergence vs price lows, Stochastic %K 28 oversold crossover, MACD line +0.14 bullish above signal with histogram green flip, Williams %R -72 extreme oversold. VWAP ₹228 flipped resistance, OBV volume surge confirmation. Pivot levels: Classic PP ₹231.2, R1 ₹234.1/R2 ₹236.3/R3 ₹239.2, S1 ₹229.0/S2 ₹226.1/S3 ₹224.0. Ichimoku cloud red bearish above price, Kijun-sen ₹232 dynamic resistance. Short-term target R1 ₹234 (3% upside), medium-term ₹250 50-SMA breakout (12%), long-term ₹280 prior highs (25%) on channel top confirmation.

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News & Events Impact RBI's rollback 25% risk weight on NBFC lending exposures (Mar '26) directly positive, unlocking ₹15,000 Cr+ bank credit lines for JIOFIN expansion; stock +4% post-announcement. Q2FY26 PAT ₹695 Cr (+125% QoQ) beat estimates on lending/investment income surge, management guides 30% AUM growth FY26. Digital NBFC acquisition rumors (Utkarsh/others) +6% reaction; SEBI digital lending guidelines easing compliance fears. Negative: Q3 miss triggered 8% correction amid sector rotation.
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Global Cues & War Impact Middle East war indirect pressure via 50bps+ term premium widening (3M T-bill 6.8%), funding costs up 30-50bps for NBFCs;
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JIOFIN digitally insulated vs deposit-reliant peers. Rupee 84.5/USD depreciation raises imported tech costs marginally; positive FII flows on US Fed pause. Prolonged conflict >6 months risks 10-15% NBFC credit slowdown.
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Daily Technical Chart Analysis of JIO FINANCIAL on 05042026.pdf
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