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DEEPAK PAL

9th Jan · SEBI-Registered Analyst

"M&MFIN: Rural Powerhouse, Resilient Growth Engine"

Detailed Technical Analysis: Price ₹355 down 11% weekly from ₹405 highs breaking all MAs (MA5 ₹253 to MA200 ₹259 Strong Sell). RSI(14) 27-32 Sell, STOCH 32 Sell, STOCHRSI 0 Oversold, Williams %R -95 Oversold confirm capitulation. MACD -1.98 Sell, ADX 35 Sell, CCI -162 Sell but ATR 1.85 low volatility suggests sharp bounce ahead. Pivot ₹262, R1 ₹265/R2 ₹270/R3 ₹273; S1 ₹258/S2 ₹255/S3 ₹250 - trading above but base formation likely. Strategy: Buy ₹350-355 targeting ₹270-290 with SL ₹345.

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Reasons for Recent Downfall: Technical MA breakdown triggered algo cascade, FII ₹3K+ selling hit NBFCs, profit booking post Jan 3 Q3 optimism fade despite +7% disbursements. Unsecured loan scrutiny + broader risk-off pressured 11.79% weekly drop vs flat Nifty.
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Micro & Macro View: Micro (1-3 months): Oversold reversal play entry ₹350-355 targeting ₹270-290 (R1-R2), catalyst Q3 results Jan 28, risk FII selling. Macro (6-12 months): Bullish rural recovery 12-15% AUM growth, NIM expansion, RBI cuts; 12M target ₹450-500 (35-40% upside).
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Upcoming News/Events & Impact: Q3 Results Jan 28: NII ₹3800-3900 Cr +12%, PAT ₹2800 Cr +15% - beat triggers 10% rally, miss tests ₹320. RBI Feb policy 25-50 bps cuts boosts NIM 20-30 bps. FY26 guidance on rural demand critical.
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Daily Chart Analysis of M&MFIN on 09012026.pdf
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