RECLTD

Technical (Daily) Trend: Short-term downtrend. Price is below all key moving averages (fast/medium EMAs and 200-DMA is far overhead). Price action: Lower highs/lower lows; repeated rejection near the ₹395–402 supply zone (confluence of MAs). Indicators: Parabolic SAR dots above price → bearish pressure intact. MACD below signal with falling histogram → negative momentum. RSI 39 → weak but not deeply oversold (scope for brief bounces). Levels: Support: ₹378–₹375 (near recent swing), then ₹368 / ₹360. Resistance: ₹392–₹400 (MA cluster), then ₹408. Technical bias: Bearish while below ₹400. Short-term bounces are sell-on-rise unless there’s a daily close back above ₹400–₹405 with volume. Upcoming Events & Possible Impact: Q1 FY26 results/management commentary: Watch loan growth, disbursements in renewables/metering, NIM/spreads, Stage-3, credit costs, and FY26 guidance. A beat + confident guidance could fuel a relief rally toward ₹392–₹400; a miss or cautious tone may extend the drift toward ₹368/₹360. RBI policy/sovereign yield moves: Softer yields → valuation support; firmer yields → pressure. Tender/award news (RDSS, transmission, green energy corridors): Positive newsflow can improve sentiment for power financiers broadly. lPortfolio View (tactical vs. investment): Short term (weeks): Defensive/neutral. Prefer sell on rise into ₹392–₹400 unless a strong close above ₹405 reverses the structure. Medium/long term (12–24 months): If your thesis is on power-sector capex and PSU financiers, consider buying on deeper dips near stronger supports (₹368/₹360) in staggered lots, provided business metrics (growth, spreads, asset quality) remain intact.