IndusInd Bank has bounced 28% from recent lows, but deeper concerns may stay longer

A PwC audit pegged derivatives-related losses at ₹1,979 crore (~2.27% of net worth as of Dec 2024), aligning with internal and RBI estimates. However, the delayed disclosure internally discovered in Oct 2024, but announced only in Mar 2025, has drawn RBI scrutiny, triggering a likely leadership change. CEO Sumant Kathpalia and Deputy CEO Arun Khurana (who oversaw global markets) are expected to exit, and the RBI has asked for a successor shortlist ahead of Kathpalia’s term end in Mar 2026. Despite this, management maintains FY25 will remain profitable, with the CEO noting a net post-tax impact of ₹1,520 crore, and a Q4 profit still likely. Operationally, Q4 FY25 was mixed: Net advances at ₹3.47 lakh crore rose just 1.4% YoY but declined 5.2% QoQ due to a 15.1% fall in corporate loans; consumer banking grew 6.3% YoY and 3.4% QoQ. Deposits rose to ₹4.11 lakh crore (+6.8% YoY), but the CASA ratio dipped to 32.8% (from 34.9% in Q3), indicating costlier liabilities. Liquidity Coverage Ratio fell to 118.4% from 136.2%, though still above norms. Technically, the

(CMP ₹778.50) is testing the ₹778–₹810 resistance. A close above ₹810 may open room to ₹893–₹922, but the broader downtrend holds unless it breaks ₹893. RSI at 55.39 signals momentum but not overbought. My View: While short-term upside is possible, structural risks around governance, asset mix, and leadership visibility remain key hurdles for a meaningful re-rating. Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. I, or my family, associates, or relatives, may have a financial interest in the securities mentioned.