's export engine is firing beautifully, but margins are starting to crack under pressure.
BAJAJ-AUTO
: Strong quarter with profits up 14% to ₹2,210 crores, driven by exports surging 16% while domestic sales dropped 8%. They're clearly winning market share overseas, which is smart given how competitive the Indian two-wheeler market has become. EVs now make up over 20% of domestic revenue, showing they're not sleeping on the electric transition.
But the margin drop below 20% for the first time in seven quarters is concerning. Weaker dollar realizations are hurting export profitability, which is problematic when exports are driving your growth. It's the classic emerging market dilemma - you need dollar revenues to grow, but currency moves can kill your margins.
The rare-earth magnet shortage for EVs is another curveball. Just when they're gaining traction in electric vehicles, supply chain issues might cap their production. It's like having demand but not being able to fulfill it - frustrating for management and investors alike.
Goldman's ₹9,500 target suggests 34% upside, betting that export momentum continues and supply issues resolve. But at some point, domestic market recovery needs to kick in too. You can't build a sustainable business just on exports when your home market is struggling.