INDUSINDBK

Q1 FY26 preview

's loans are down 3.9%, deposits falling, and their prized current account ratio slipping to 31.5%. They're clearly being selective about lending after the governance mess that led to a management overhaul. It's the classic post-crisis playbook - fix the books first, grow later. Nomura sees 30% upside potential, betting that the worst is behind them. The stock's trading at just 0.7-0.8x book value, which is historically cheap even for a troubled bank. If they can deliver 15-16% returns on equity as the books clean up, that's serious value creation waiting to happen. The July 23rd board meeting is crucial - they're discussing raising capital through QIP or GDRs, which would strengthen their balance sheet but also dilute existing shareholders. It's a necessary evil if they want to rebuild credibility and start growing again. This feels like a binary bet. Either new management executes cleanly, deposits start flowing back, and the stock rebounds sharply from these beaten-down levels. Or the turnaround takes longer than expected and you're stuck in a slow grind. At these valuations, the risk-reward might favor the optimists, but only if you can stomach the uncertainty.