HDFCBANK

RBI Decision Day + GIFT Nifty gap-up angle

Markets are set to open with a gap-up today. GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,728, up 172 points from Tuesday's close of 24,556, as risk sentiment turned sharply positive overnight after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Washington and Tehran could reach a deal soon. Crude fell immediately on that signal, giving markets in Asia a clean tailwind at the open. But the real event of the day is not the open — it is 10 AM. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announces the August MPC outcome this morning, followed by a press conference at 12 PM. The consensus view is a fourth straight hold at 5.25 per cent with a neutral stance retained. That makes the governor's commentary — on inflation trajectory, liquidity conditions, and the external environment — the only variable that actually matters today. India's 10-year bond yield has been steady near 6.7 per cent, telling you that bond traders have already priced in no change. The equity market has not fully priced in the commentary risk yet. Key technical levels to watch: Nifty has immediate support at 24,500-24,550 and resistance at 24,850. A gap-up open near 24,700 followed by hawkish RBI commentary on inflation could trigger a swift reversal. A neutral or dovish tone, on the other hand, could push the index toward the 25,000 zone for the first time since April. India VIX closed Tuesday at 12.30 — elevated enough to signal caution but not fear. Watch how the market reacts in the 30 minutes post 10 AM. That window will set the tone for the rest of the session and likely for the entire week.