Independence week Special | The Stock That Should Be Winning But Is Not | ONGC

$ONGC August 14, 1956 was the day the Oil and Natural Gas Commission was established — exactly 70 years ago. ONGC was founded on August 14, 1956 and later corporatised on June 23, 1993. It is fitting, then, to examine this Maharatna PSU on Independence Day. Here is the paradox. Brent crude is trading near $87 a barrel — elevated by any measure, driven by US-Iran Strait of Hormuz tensions. Higher crude should, in theory, mean higher realisation per barrel for ONGC, better margins and a stronger stock. Instead, ONGC was among the top Nifty losers on Friday, with the stock declining even as crude prices rose. The 52-week range runs from Rs 227.65 to Rs 307.50. The stock currently trades at Rs 238.20 — near the lower end of that range, having declined 10.9 per cent over the past six months and returning just 1.65 per cent over the past year despite energy prices staying elevated through most of 2026. !Kotak The reason is a structural one that haunts every upstream PSU. Rising crude helps realisation, but the government's subsidy burden expectations and administered pricing on LPG and kerosene often cap how much of that windfall actually flows through to ONGC's bottom line. Add to that declining domestic production volumes at ageing fields, and the stock's persistent underperformance versus the crude price chart becomes easier to understand. With a PE of just 7.18x and mutual fund shareholding of 7.95 per cent — one of the lowest institutional ownership levels among Nifty heavyweights — ONGC is a value stock that has been a value trap for patient investors through most of 2026. Whether Tuesday's session, post the long weekend, brings a fresh look at the energy sector remains to be seen. Jai Hind.