Mar'25 View on Biocon Ltd

Biocon is engaged in the business of manufacture of biotechnology products and research services. The stock is making a high of 400 and low of 290 and is now near 20EMA level of 335 and now looks cross 365 with following inputs. • Market shares of BIOS’ key oncology biosimilars in the US have been steadily improving. • BIOS delivered a 10% EBITDA miss on our estimates in Q3FY25, owing to weakness in Syngene and generics. • Meanwhile, biosimilars sales stayed on track with a 4% qoq uptick to US$27.1 cr. • We factor in a ~15% biosimilars sales CAGR over FY24-27E, led by clearance of both Bengaluru and Malaysia facilities and material new launches. • Aided by new launches amid the onboarding of incremental capacities, we expect generics to recover hereon. • Similarly, we expect an acceleration in Syngene’s growth from Q4FY25. • Accordingly, we forecast ~21% EBITDA CAGR over FY24-27E.