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Pyrifera Investment Advisors

6th Sep · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Electricity prices on the Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) plunged 45% year-on-year in early September, with the Real-Time Market (RTM) averaging just ₹2.01/unit (Sept 1–4), down from ₹3.63/unit a year ago. Traded volumes surged 83% to 825 million units, reflecting strong supply and shifting consumption patterns. The sharp price drop was driven by heavy monsoon rains, which reduced cooling demand and boosted hydro, wind, and solar generation. Sell-side liquidity in DAM rose 40% YoY, thanks to robust renewable output and healthy coal stockpiles—51 million tonnes (91% of normative levels) as of September 2. Despite a 4% YoY rise in energy consumption (150.47 BU in August), peak demand reached only 242 GW, below last year’s 250 GW due to cooler weather. Impact on Power Exchanges like IEX: Erosion of Pricing Power While lower prices benefit discoms and industrial consumers, who can now procure cheaper power, they weaken the pricing power of power exchanges like IEX. With frequent near-zero prices and growing surplus, the exchange becomes a price-taker rather than a price-setter. As renewable capacity expands, intermittent but zero-marginal-cost generation floods the market during peak production hours, compressing prices and reducing revenue potential for generators and trading platforms alike. This trend threatens the commercial viability of the exchange model, especially if discoms increasingly rely on must-run renewables and long-term PPAs instead of short-term spot purchases. Still, RTM volumes grew 44% to 5,029 million units in August, showing rising reliance on exchanges for balancing. IEX’s role as a flexibility enabler remains critical, but its pricing influence is diminishing in an era of clean, abundant, and cheap power. The future lies in volume-driven models rather than price premiums.

IEX

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