Moody’s Upgrades Outlook on JSW Steel to Positive Amid Capacity Expansion

Moody’s Ratings has revised JSW Steel’s outlook to 'Positive' from 'Stable', while affirming its Ba1 rating, citing the company’s aggressive capacity expansion and strong growth strategy. As India’s largest steel producer, JSW has ramped up capacity by 20% to 35.7 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in just 15 months, with plans for another 20% increase by 2028. Moody’s projects earnings to rise to ₹300 crore in FY26 and ₹350 crore in FY27, driven by higher sales volumes—expected to reach 32 million tonnes by FY27—and stable EBITDA of ₹10,500–10,750 per tonne. The positive outlook reflects JSW’s strategic expansions at Vijayanagar, Salem, Dolvi, and BPSL, robust domestic demand (5–7% annual growth expected), and financial discipline despite high capex—₹20,000 crore in FY26 and ₹21,000 crore in FY27. Challenges include import competition and liquidity pressure, but Moody’s expects debt/EBITDA to improve to 3.0x–3.5x in 12–18 months. Strong access to capital markets will support refinancing needs. This upgrade highlights JSW Steel’s leading role in India’s infrastructure-driven steel boom and its ability to scale sustainably in a competitive landscape.