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Rakesh Madhav CFA

7th Sep · SEBI-Registered Analyst

🚨 Eicher Motors – Follow Up View | GST Impact

EICHERMOT
🔎 Technical View Stock closed at ₹6,580 (+2.4%), sustaining inside a strong rising channel. Immediate resistance lies at ₹6,700–6,750, while trend support is visible at ₹6,290–6,300. RSI at 86 → overbought zone, but still showing strong bullish momentum. Price action supported by volumes, confirming buyers’ dominance. As long as it stays above ₹6,300, trend remains intact with potential move toward ₹7,000–7,200. 📊 Fundamental Drivers Royal Enfield Demand: Robust domestic sales + steady export volumes continue. Premiumization: Indian 2W market shifting to premium bikes, lifting margins. CV Recovery: Commercial vehicle segment is improving, adding diversification. Financials: Strong FY25 Q1 revenue & ~23% EBITDA margin show operating efficiency. 💰 GST Impact GST on premium bikes (>350cc) remains at 28% + cess, unchanged → no negative surprise. Simplified GST input credits & logistics efficiency benefit Eicher’s CV business, indirectly aiding profitability. Risk: Any future hike in cess on luxury vehicles could hit RE demand, but current structure is stable. ⭐ Analyst Tone Brokerages maintain BUY / OUTPERFORM with targets in the range ₹6,800–7,200. Consensus positive, citing strong demand, margin resilience & premium brand positioning. ⚠️ Risks Rising raw material costs (steel/aluminum). Intensifying competition in mid-size bikes & EV entrants. Valuations elevated (~30x FY25E EPS). ✅ Summary Eicher Motors is riding a strong uptrend, with GST structure not posing fresh risks. Momentum remains positive; dips toward ₹6,300–6,350 can be used for re-entry. Near-term overbought, but long-term outlook bullish with upside potential toward ₹7,000–7,200

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