📊 National Aluminium (NALCO) – Technical & Fundamental View

Technical Outlook: NALCO has witnessed a sharp breakout from consolidation and is trading firmly above its 20/50-day EMAs (~₹206/₹200). RSI is at ~70, reflecting strong momentum and nearing the overbought zone, suggesting continuation of the uptrend but with possible near-term volatility. Key support lies at ₹200–₹206, while immediate resistance is seen around ₹225–₹230. A breakout above ₹230 may open the path towards ₹250–₹260 levels. Fundamental Outlook: NALCO, a leading PSU in aluminium and alumina production, is set to benefit from rising global aluminium demand and firm prices. Strong government capex on infrastructure, renewable energy, and EV adoption are structural tailwinds. The company has shown robust profitability in FY25 with improved operational efficiencies and stable margins. Its strong balance sheet, low debt, and healthy dividend yield make it attractive for long-term investors. Ongoing expansion projects in mining and smelting also provide future earnings visibility. Analyst Ratings: Most brokerages maintain a ‘Buy’ to ‘Accumulate’ stance on NALCO, citing its strong fundamentals, PSU advantage, and favorable demand outlook. Target ranges from ₹240–₹260 in the medium term. Short-Term View: Positive; can test ₹225–₹230 with support at ₹200. Traders may trail stop-loss near ₹198. Long-Term View: Bullish; strong sector tailwinds and expansion visibility could take the stock towards ₹260–₹280 over the next 12–18 months. ⚠️ Risks: Global aluminium price volatility, higher input costs (coal, power), and policy changes in mining sector remain key risks.