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Rakesh Madhav CFA

19th Feb · SEBI-Registered Analyst

ONGC – Breakout Attempt Backed by Oil Tailwinds?

ONGC
is showing signs of a fresh bullish swing on the weekly chart after a prolonged consolidation phase. The stock has moved above its short-term moving averages with improving momentum, indicating potential trend continuation. Structurally, price is attempting to reclaim higher zones after forming a strong base near the ₹225–240 region. Technical Setup: Weekly breakout attempt above recent swing resistance zone. Trading above 20 & 50 EMA; short-term averages turning upward. RSI on weekly chart pushing toward overbought zone, signaling strong momentum. Volume expansion seen on breakout candles – indicating participation. Immediate resistance near previous major high zone; support placed near recent consolidation base. Fundamental Triggers: Beneficiary of elevated crude oil prices and improving upstream realizations. Strong dividend yield support adds downside cushion. Government capex focus on energy security and domestic production. Improving cash flows with deleveraging comfort. Any clarity on windfall tax or policy changes can act as catalyst. Overall structure suggests accumulation phase shifting toward breakout attempt, but sustainability depends on crude price trend and policy clarity.

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