📉 India’s Quiet Commodities Windfall — But for How Long ? ( Part 2 )

🥘 Agri & Food: Mixed Plate Global food staples—rice, wheat, and maize—are easing thanks to bumper harvests. India’s own export relaxations have helped global supply. Edible oil prices are projected to drop 6–17% in 2025. Beneficiaries: Britannia, Nestlé, HUL: Lower input costs in wheat and edible oils. Godrej Agrovet: Better cost control in agri-inputs. ⚠️ Watch out for: Rising fertilizer costs (due to China’s export controls) and a spike in beverage prices. Cocoa and coffee prices are surging, with chocolate and coffee brands likely to feel the pinch. 🏗️ Metals: Slowing Down Base metals—copper, aluminum, nickel—are all trending lower. The World Bank expects a 10% drop in prices this year, with China’s slowdown hitting iron ore hardest. Beneficiaries: Tata Steel

, JSW Steel , Hindalco : Lower input prices can support profitability. BHEL, ABB India: Capital goods may benefit from cheaper metals. 🧭 But not all is bearish: Nickel: Prices down despite EV demand—Indonesia’s export surge is causing oversupply. Lithium & Copper: Still in demand for EVs, keeping long-term pricing firm. 🪙 Precious Metals: The Exception Unlike other commodities, gold and silver remain firm, buoyed by global uncertainty and investor demand. Likely winners: Titan, Kalyan Jewellers : Higher gold prices often drive volume growth in jewelry retail. HDFC Asset Management, Nippon India AMC: Precious metals funds may see inflows. 🌐 Trade Barriers: The Wild Card Trade restrictions are 10x higher than pre-COVID levels. Export bans, tariffs, and hoarding distort prices—creating regional price bubbles.