🧠 Is It a Real Slowdown or Just a Shift in Spending? A Fresh Look at FMCG Woes

What looks like a slowdown may be a shift in how and where consumers spend — not a lack of spending. 🧑‍🏫 For the past year, I’ve listened closely to earnings calls and management commentary. One trend kept repeating: FMCG CEOs were united in concern — “Consumption is weak. The middle class is shrinking. Volume growth is muted.” It felt convincing. Nestlé India’s

Chairman spoke of the vanishing middle segment HUL’s CEO mentioned urban slowdown and rural distress Colgate-Palmolive’s MD said the bottom 70% of urban India is under pressure And the data seemed to agree — volume growth lagging profit growth. But then a different idea struck me. Maybe the issue isn’t that people aren’t spending. Maybe they’re just spending elsewhere. 👟 A D2C sneaker brand thrives → legacy retailer slows down 🏏 IPL stadiums are packed → cinema halls stay empty 📺 OTT subscriptions rise → popcorn sales at multiplexes drop 💡 Could it be that traditional FMCG brands are missing where the money is now going? 🔁 If this is a cyclical phase, then patience and rural-focused companies may benefit: Dabur, Godrej Consumer LT Foods, KRBL 📈 But if it's a structural shift, the winners may be: Nykaa, Mamaearth (new-age brands) Delhivery, Zomato, IndiaMART (digital consumption enablers) EaseMyTrip, Inox India (experience-led demand) 📌 The key insight? Don’t mistake changing habits for shrinking wallets. Consumers aren’t necessarily broke — they might just be bored of old brands.