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SHUBINVESTS I SEBI RA

12th Apr · SEBI-Registered Analyst

When One Strait Shook the World: The Hidden Fragility of Oil Supply

Global oil supply chains are fragile; disruptions at key chokepoints can trigger widespread economic stress, inflation, and sector-specific opportunities. Since late February, the Strait of Hormuz just 34 km wide — exposed a hard truth: the world’s energy system is tightly bottlenecked. Nearly 20% of global oil flows through this narrow passage. When it shut, rerouting options fell short. Even after using pipelines, the world still faced a gap of ~13 million barrels per day. But here’s the deeper issue — this wasn’t delayed supply. It was destroyed supply. Oil that was never produced. Over 200 million barrels vanished in just one month. For India, the impact hit fast. LPG shortages, rising fuel costs, and pressure on imports. This is not about war anymore — it’s about structural dependency. Even seasoned analysts like Rory Johnston see this as different from past shocks. Earlier disruptions adjusted. This one exposed a system stretched too thin. What does this mean going forward? Energy security is no longer optional. Countries and companies tied to refining, gas distribution, and alternative sourcing gain importance. 📊 Indian Stocks That May Benefit (NIFTY 500 Focus): Reliance Industries

RIIL
– Integrated energy + refining strength ONGC
ONGC
– Upstream gains from higher crude prices Oil India – Domestic production advantage GAIL
GAIL
– Gas transmission relevance rises Petronet LNG – LNG import infrastructure Gujarat Gas – City gas distribution demand

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