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Tejaswi

3rd Jan · SEBI-Registered Analyst

NALCO: Supercycle Surge Beats Valuation Warnings

National Aluminium Company

NATIONALUM
, a Navratna PSU, runs Asia's largest integrated bauxite-alumina-aluminium-power setup. Self-mining bauxite gives it a killer cost edge, capturing fat margins amid global supply shocks from Australia and Guinea. Q2 FY26 smashed records: net profit leaped 37% YoY to Rs 1,430 crore, revenue up 7% to Rs 4,292 crore, EBITDA margins at 45% (from 39%). Alumina volumes surged 39%. A Rs 4/share dividend (3.2% yield) signals cash strength despite expansion. Shares rocketed 30%+ to Rs 330, busting 52-week highs. Institutional cash piles in on "supercycle" hopes—aluminium scarcity for green energy where low-cost champs like NALCO thrive as multiples lead earnings. Shareholders win short-term: profits pump book value, dividends flow steady, momentum juices returns in PSU frenzy. Cost moat flips volatility to reliable alpha—Q2 proves it. Long-term? Rs 30,000 crore capex bets big: Rs 18,000 crore for 0.5 MTPA Odisha smelter, Rs 12,000 crore power boost. Hits could double capacity by FY30, compounding supercycle riches at top margins. Risks bite: China dumping tanks prices, delays kill cash/dividends/ROE. Post-50% rally, pullbacks loom. At 4.7x EV/EBITDA, it's pricey but earned via margins/ROCE. Growth success pays holders handsomely; slips validate traps. Valuable for diversified commodity plays eyeing upside—monitor capex tight.

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