Gold 2026: Rangebound or Rally? 2025 Surge Recap - Gold up ~60% in 2025 with 50+ all-time highs. - Driven by geopolitical risks, weaker USD, lower rates, strong investment & central bank demand. Base Case Outlook - Expects stable global growth (~2.7-2.8%), ~75 bps Fed cuts, slightly stronger USD. - Gold likely rangebound (-5% to +5% from late-2025 levels). Bullish Scenarios - Shallow slip: Mild slowdown + extra easing = 5-15% upside. - Doom loop: Deep downturn + geopolitics = 15-30% surge. Bearish Risk - Trump reflation success: Higher growth/inflation = 5-20% correction. Takeaway: Gold's path hinges on macro surprises – central banks & EM demand remain key supports amid uncertainty.