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TrueNorth Capital

6th May · SEBI-Registered Analyst

BHEL
Hits All‑Time High on Margin Surge

BHEL
’s shares surged 6.4% in two sessions, hitting a record ₹399 apiece on 4 May 2026, surpassing its previous peak from 2007. The rally reflects strong Q4FY26 results, policy tailwinds, and improved execution. Consolidated EBITDA jumped 111% YoY to ₹1,753 crore, while revenue rose 37% YoY to ₹12,310 crore. FY26 revenue grew 19% to ₹33,782 crore, with EBITDA up 89% YoY. Financial & Operational Highlights Q4FY26 revenue: ₹12,310 crore (+37% YoY). FY26 revenue: ₹33,782 crore (+19% YoY). EBITDA (Q4FY26): ₹1,753 crore (+111% YoY). EBITDA margin: 6.9% in FY26 vs 4.4% in FY25. Order inflows (FY26): ₹76,000 crore (–17% YoY), but non‑thermal inflows +50% YoY, contributing >20%. Order backlog: ₹2.4 trillion (~7x FY26 revenue). Key Drivers Policy relaxation: Centre allowed imports of 21 critical items from China for five years, easing execution bottlenecks. Legacy projects: most low‑margin projects commissioned; current pipeline focused on high‑value supercritical technology. Improved realizations: ₹8.3 crore/MW (Nov ’25 project) vs ₹6.4 crore/MW (Sep ’22). Diversification: robust inflows from HVDC, nuclear, naval guns, and defence technology transfer with DRDO. Large power orders: Adani Power (8 × 800MW units) and NTPC (3 × 800MW units). Analyst Commentary JM Financial: margins could reach 11.2% by FY28, driven by product mix, indigenisation, and operational leverage. ICICI Securities: ~50GW of ageing sub‑critical thermal units to be replaced by 2032, boosting order pipeline. Bloomberg consensus: stock trades at ~43x FY27 EPS estimates. Conclusion BHEL’s Q4FY26 results mark a turning point, with strong execution, margin recovery, and policy support driving investor optimism. A massive order backlog ensures revenue visibility, while diversification into non‑thermal and defence segments strengthens resilience. Sustained margin accretion and timely execution will be key to justifying its premium valuations.

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