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TrueNorth Capital

17th Jul · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Blinkit’s Growth to Fuel
ETERNAL
's Next Stock Valuation Surge

ETERNAL
's impressive stock rerating began when the company turned profitable in FY24, a milestone primarily driven by its food delivery business, Zomato. By FY26, operating earnings in food delivery doubled due to scale benefits, establishing a solid financial foundation and a successful operational model that the company now aims to replicate in its newer ventures. Blinkit Achieves Financial Breakeven: The quick commerce arm, Blinkit, marked a significant operational turning point by breaking even at the adjusted EBITDA level in Q3 FY26. Although its Q4 FY26 operating margin of 0.3% of net order value remains well below the long-term target of 5-6%, analysts anticipate a strong rebound in Q1 FY27, with adjusted EBITDA projected to rise to Rs 125-160 crore. Exponential Growth Trajectory: Blinkit has demonstrated remarkable scale, doubling its business every year between FY23 and FY26. Moving forward, Eternal has guided for an aggressive 60% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from FY26 levels, which would effectively expand the quick commerce business fourfold over the next three years, cementing its dominant market position. The $1 Billion Profit Target: Eternal has set an ambitious target to generate $1 billion (approximately Rs 9,600 crore) in consolidated adjusted EBITDA by FY29. To achieve this, quick commerce must become a primary driver; analysts estimate Blinkit will contribute roughly $500 million of this total, actually outpacing the core food delivery segment's projected $425 million contribution. Execution Holds the Key to Rerating: Achieving these high-stakes profitability targets over the next three years will require flawless execution, especially when navigating intense industry competition and heavy infrastructure investments. Progress will be closely monitored starting with the upcoming June quarter results, as consistent execution on these targets is expected to trigger a massive rerating of Eternal's stock.

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