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TrueNorth Capital

5th Jan · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Cement Industry: Weak Realizations Persist Amid Capacity Additions

Cement companies exited Q3FY26 with sequential price corrections across regions, raising concerns about profitability amid muted realizations. Average all-India cement prices fell 1.6% QoQ to ₹336 per 50-kg bag, according to Elara Securities. The steepest decline came from the southern region, where oversupply and weak demand continue to weigh on prices. 1. All-India Price Trends - Average cement prices fell 1.6% QoQ to ₹336 per bag in Q3FY26. - Weak realizations are expected to pressure margins across companies. 2. Southern Region Weakness - Prices in the South dropped 3.9% sequentially to ₹304 per bag, the sharpest decline among regions. - Tamil Nadu and Kerala saw ₹5 per bag declines, while Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana remained flat in December. - After sharp hikes in April (₹20–45 per bag), prices have trended downward through 2025. 3. Structural Challenges in the South - Oversupply and relatively lower demand growth are the primary drags. - Intensified competition following acquisitions: - Adani Group acquired !Penna Cement and

ORIENTCEM
-
ULTRACEMCO
acquired
INDIACEM
. - Market share battles are delaying pricing revival. 4. Capacity Additions and Demand Outlook - South expected to see 46 mtpa capacity addition over four years, the second-highest regionally. - Demand recovery expected from Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, aided by infra projects. - However, project implementation has been delayed for six months, slowing utilization improvement. 5. Near-Term Price Outlook - Dealers may attempt price hikes in January. - Sustainability of hikes is uncertain due to festivals (Makar Sankranti, Pongal) impacting construction activity and labor availability. - Quick respite from demand-supply mismatch appears unlikely, keeping profitability under pressure.

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