ETERNAL

’s Slide Highlights Quick Commerce Risks

’s stock endured an extraordinary 18-session losing streak, shedding nearly 25% to ₹216 before rebounding 12.5% to ₹242.5. While management changes and LPG shortages are not the main drivers, investor concerns center on new entrants in food delivery and quick commerce, and the potential disruption from agentic AI. Analysts remain divided on long-term EBITDA projections, with Blinkit’s exposure to competitive risks a key variable. Stock Performance - Fell 25% over 18 sessions (rare for a Nifty 50 constituent). - Recovered 12.5% in last three sessions, aided by JM Financial reiterating a ₹400 target price and broader market gains. - Current valuation: 24x FY28 EV/EBITDA (JM estimates). Key Concerns - Competition - Flipkart reportedly piloting food delivery in Bengaluru (May–June). - Rapido-owned Ownly expanding operations. - JM Financial: concerns are premature; dislodging Zomato–Swiggy duopoly requires vast restaurant/logistics networks and heavy brand investment. - New entrants face steep customer acquisition costs and long gestation periods. - Agentic AI Threat - AI systems could compare prices/delivery timelines across platforms and place orders automatically. - Risk: reduced customer loyalty, especially for Blinkit, the dominant quick commerce player. Financial Outlook - JM Financial FY28E EBITDA: ₹8,680 crore, split almost equally between Zomato and Blinkit. - Motilal Oswal: ₹5,900 crore; ICICI Securities: ₹7,153 crore. - Risks lower for Zomato (food delivery duopoly intact), higher for Blinkit (exposed to e-commerce giants and AI disruption).