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TrueNorth Capital

16th Mar · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Global Headwinds Contrast with India’s EV Upside

While EV sales falter in the US and face stiff competition in Europe, India’s EV market is showing robust double-digit growth, attracting fresh investments from both global and domestic automakers. Government incentives, rising adoption, and strategic expansion plans are positioning India as a potential global EV supply hub, even as subsidies taper. Analysts expect penetration to rise steadily, supported by declining battery costs and improving technology. Global Context - Honda announced a $15.7 billion write-down on EV investments, joining Stellantis, Ford, and GM in reporting over $60 billion in global EV write-downs. - US EV sales fell 2% to 1.28 million units in 2025, adoption at ~8%. - Europe grew 17% to 3.65 million units, penetration at 16%, but faces rising competition from Chinese automakers (BYD, Leapmotor, Jaecoo). India’s EV Market - 2025 sales: 177,000 units (+77% YoY); penetration rose from 2.4% to 4% of 4.5 million passenger vehicle market. - Government support: ₹25,000 crore PLI scheme, 5% GST on EVs vs. 18–40% on ICE vehicles, plus state-level incentives. - Effective benefits cover 35–60% of EV price, according to industry executives. Automaker Strategies - Honda: ₹1,200 crore investment at Tapukara plant; first BEV (Honda 0 α) due in H2 FY26–27. - Renault: India to become global production hub; four new models by 2030, including EVs and hybrids. -

M&M
: 20% of manufacturing capacity dedicated to EVs by FY2027 (~18,000 EVs/month). -
TMPV
: Market leader; expects rapid penetration growth, aiming for 30% electrification with industry participation. -
MARUTI
&
HYUNDAI
: Target 15–17% EV penetration by March 2031. - JSW MG Motor & VinFast India: Committed ~$1 billion toward new models and capacity. Outlook India’s EV adoption curve is expected to be steady and sustainable, aided by localization, fleet demand, and technology improvements.

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