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TrueNorth Capital

11th Jan · SEBI-Registered Analyst

GMBREW
Breweries Posts Strong Q3 on Volume Growth, Faces Cane-Supply Risks Ahead

GMBREW
reported its highest-ever quarterly revenue in Q3FY26, with Rs 202 crore, up 22% YoY, driven by strong rural demand across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). The company sustained its growth momentum from the previous quarter, with margin expansion and disciplined cost control leading to a near doubling of net profit. However, tightening supply of cane-derived inputs like molasses and rectified spirits may pose margin risks going forward. Q3FY26 Financial Highlights - Revenue: Rs 202 crore, up 22% YoY - Gross margin: 33.0%, up 680 bps YoY - EBITDA margin: 26.0%, vs 18.0% in base quarter - Net profit: Rs 42 crore, nearly doubled YoY, aided by higher other income Operational Drivers - Strong demand in rural MMR markets supported volume growth - Distributor throughput and seasonal stocking added momentum - Core category (country liquor) remains resilient to economic volatility Cost Efficiency and Leverage - Manufacturing expenses rose just 6% YoY, enabling operating leverage - Favourable input costs (molasses, rectified spirits) improved absorption of fixed costs - Procurement discipline contributed to margin expansion Feedstock Risk Outlook - Sugarcane output remains uneven in Maharashtra and Karnataka due to monsoon variability - Ethanol blending continues to divert molasses supply - Despite strong crushing season start (12.0 MMT by Dec 31), tight supply conditions persist - Risks: ethanol policy shifts, export quota relaxations, weather disruptions Strategic Outlook - Business fundamentals strengthened with visible margin and scale benefits - Core market demand remains robust - Monitoring input cost inflation and sourcing dynamics will be key to sustaining profitability

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