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TrueNorth Capital

16th Sep · SEBI Registration INA000020040

Happy Forgings Powers Ahead with Strong Order Book

HAPPYFORGE
reported a 23% year-on-year volume growth in the June quarter, driving a 27% revenue increase. Management expects high-teens volume growth for FY27, supported by robust domestic demand and improving export momentum. Order book strength: The company’s ₹950 crore order book, with nearly 60% linked to exports, is a major driver of optimism. These orders were secured at higher realizations and margins, positioning the firm for sustained revenue growth over the next 2–3 years. Margin expansion: Despite raw material cost pressures, EBITDA margin rose 280 basis points to 31.3% in Q1FY27, aided by price hikes and a favorable product mix. Analysts expect margins to remain stable at FY26 levels (30.4%) with potential expansion to 33% by FY29. Growth drivers: Future growth will be supported by capacity additions in passenger vehicles, industrial applications, heavy engines, and data centre power infrastructure. The company has already deployed ₹250 crore of its planned ₹650 crore capex, with further investments tied to new order wins. Stock performance: Shares hit a 52-week high of ₹2,470 on 1 September, delivering an 87% return in 2026. However, at a FY28 P/E multiple of 43, valuations leave little room for disappointment, making execution risks critical. Risks: Potential delays in order fulfillment, slower growth in domestic commercial vehicles, or inability to secure new heavy-forged component orders could weigh on performance.

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