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TrueNorth Capital

10th Jan · SEBI-Registered Analyst

India’s EV Momentum Slows Briefly Amid GST-Led ICE Price Advantage

India’s electric vehicle (EV) penetration saw a temporary dip during the festive season as GST cuts on petrol and diesel cars narrowed the price gap with EVs. While EV adoption had been rising steadily, the surge in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales briefly disrupted momentum. However, EV volumes rebounded in November and December, suggesting underlying demand remains intact. Festive GST Cuts and ICE Sales Surge - Government reduced GST on petrol and diesel cars in September. - Resulted in a spike in ICE vehicle sales during the festive season. - Raised concerns about slower EV transition due to improved ICE affordability. EV Penetration Trends - EV share of passenger vehicle sales: - September: 5.14% - October: fell to 3.26% - November: recovered to 3.75% - December: further improved to 3.94% - EVs still retain a 5% GST advantage over ICE vehicles. Volume Growth and Market Dynamics - Monthly EV volumes doubled YoY, from 7,500 units to 16,000–18,000 units. - Indicates strong underlying demand despite temporary festive distortion. - EV prices range between ₹2–4 lakh, making affordability a key factor. Competitive Landscape and Brand Strategies -

TMCV
and
M&M
continue to invest in EV portfolios. - Quick-commerce platforms (Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart, Zepto) expanding beauty and lifestyle assortments, indirectly influencing consumer mobility choices. - Brand-owned websites and horizontal platforms also intensify competition. Long-Term Outlook - EV adoption expected to resume upward trajectory post-festive season. - GST cuts may prompt policy recalibration to maintain EV incentives. - Sustained growth will depend on pricing, infrastructure, and consumer awareness.

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