JSWINFRA

Eyes FY28 Volume Surge with New Projects

has approved an equity fundraising plan of up to 250 million shares, nearly equal to its IPO size, to comply with Sebi’s minimum public shareholding norms and fund aggressive capital expenditure. A qualified institutional placement (QIP) is likely. While equity dilution may weigh on sentiment, management is confident that robust cargo volume growth and margin expansion from new projects will support earnings. The stock has already doubled from its IPO issue price, but valuations remain demanding relative to peers. Fundraising & Capex Plans - Promoter stake: 83.6%, must reduce to ≤75% by Oct 2026. - Proposed issue size: ~12% of equity base (~250 million shares). - At ₹250/share, fundraising could garner ₹6,250 crore, >2x IPO proceeds. - Capex FY27–28: ₹16,500 crore (₹13,000 crore ports, ₹3,500 crore logistics). - Funds from QIP to support expansion and compliance. Growth Outlook - Cargo volumes: - FY26: +5% growth. - FY27: +9% growth, reaching 134 mtpa. - FY28: +25% growth, reaching 165–175 mtpa, driven by new projects. - Key projects: - Iron ore slurry pipeline (Odisha): 30 mtpa, ₹4,000 crore. - Jatadhar port expansion: +30 mtpa, ₹3,000 crore. - Jaigarh & Dharamtar ports (Maharashtra): +36 mtpa combined, ₹2,400 crore. - Private port expansions to improve EBITDA margins (no royalty payments). Financial & Valuation - FY26 EBITDA estimate: ₹2,600 crore. - Management forecasts FY28 EBITDA nearly 2x FY26 levels. - Brokerages (PL Capital, Motilal Oswal): ~75% EBITDA growth FY26–28. - Valuation: - FY27 EV/EBITDA: 19x, ~30% premium to Adani Ports. - FY28 EV/EBITDA: ~14x, in line with Adani Ports. Outlook & Risks - Equity dilution could weigh on near-term sentiment. - Execution of large projects critical to justify valuations. - Strong FY28 growth potential, but near-term premium vs peers remains a concern.