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TrueNorth Capital

17th Jan · SEBI-Registered Analyst

RELIANCE
’s Core Strengths Hold Firm as Retail and Oil & Gas Face Margin Pressures

RELIANCE
(RIL) posted double-digit EBITDA growth in Q3FY26, led by strong performance in its Digital (Jio) and Oil to Chemicals (O2C) segments. While Retail (RRVL) saw muted earnings and Oil & Gas (E&P) faced margin pressure, the company’s strategic pivot toward AI, New Energy, and FMCG businesses underpins its transformation into RIL 3.0. With robust balance sheet metrics and expanding consumer reach, RIL is positioning for long-term value creation. 1. Core Segment Performance - Jio: Revenue up 13% YoY, ARPU at ₹213.7 (+5.1% YoY), 5G subscribers at 253 million. - O2C: EBITDA up 14.6% YoY, driven by strong fuel cracks and sulphur prices. - Oil & Gas (E&P): Revenue down 8.4% YoY, EBITDA margin contracted 410 bps due to lower KGD6 volumes and price realisations. - Retail (RRVL): Revenue growth moderated to 9% YoY, EBITDA margin down 60 bps due to festive promotions and labour code impact. 2. Digital and Consumer Momentum - JioAirFiber: Subscriber base crossed 11.5 million. - JioMart: Added 5.9 million customers, hyperlocal orders up 360% YoY. - Ajio: Delivered consistent growth via festive campaigns and product expansion. 3. Strategic Growth Drivers - New Energy (RNEL): Solar module and HJT cell lines operational; 550,000-acre solar park in development. - AI Infrastructure: GW-scale data centers at Jamnagar, partnerships with Meta and Google. - FMCG: YTD revenue at ₹15,000 crore, targeting ₹1 lakh crore in 5 years. 4. Financial Strength and Investment Capacity - Net debt to EBITDA at 0.57x, enabling aggressive investment in new verticals. - EBITDA margin expanded 170 bps, driven by operating leverage and cost efficiencies. 5. Outlook and Risks - Near-term drivers: tariff hikes, 5G adoption, broadband growth. - Risks: El Niño impact on rural demand, geopolitical volatility affecting crude prices. - Long-term upside from premiumisation, digitisation, and new-age business scale-up.

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