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TrueNorth Capital

14th Feb · SEBI-Registered Analyst

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TITAN
Margins Hold Amid Gold Price Volatility

TITAN
reported a multi-quarter high jewellery revenue growth of 40% YoY to ₹19,921 crore in Q3FY26, excluding bullion sales, as soaring gold prices and wedding demand boosted sales. Plain gold jewellery revenues rose sharply, while studded jewellery growth was more modest due to margin dilution from elevated gold prices. Jewellery contributed 90% of Titan’s total revenue, underscoring its dominance. Profitability improved, though margin sustainability remains a key monitorable in a volatile gold-price environment. Jewellery Segment Performance - Domestic jewellery revenue: ₹19,921 crore, +40% YoY. - Plain gold jewellery: +37% YoY, driven by weddings and coin sales. - Studded jewellery: +26% YoY, supported by high-value purchases, solitaires, and store expansion. - Average ticket size: ₹1.9 lakh, rising faster in plain gold vs studded jewellery. - Entry-level demand (<₹1 lakh pieces) remained flat; Titan pivoted to lightweight and 18k jewellery to improve accessibility. Profitability & Margins - Domestic jewellery EBIT: ₹2,166 crore, +59% YoY. - EBIT margin: 10.9%, +129 bps YoY. - Adjusted EBIT (ex-gold duty impact): +34% YoY, margin contraction ~50 bps. - Margin dilution from studded jewellery, higher coin salience, and marketing spends. - Analysts expect margins to sustain in the 11–11.5% range, contingent on revenue growth cushioning volatility. Consumer Trends & Strategy - Strong wedding demand and coin purchases drove plain gold growth. - Studded jewellery faced pressure from high gold prices. - Lightweight jewellery and regional acceptance of 18k gold products gaining traction in North and East India. - Management prioritises absolute EBIT growth over margin expansion in high-gold-price environment. Valuation & Outlook - Stock up ~30% in past year, hit 52-week high of ₹4,378.40. - Trades at 63x FY27E earnings, considered expensive. - Key risk: volatility in gold prices may alter consumer behaviour and weigh on margins.

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