Visa Lottery Overhaul and Fee Pressure Disrupt US Tech Staffing Models

The Trump administration’s proposed $100,000 fee for new H-1B hires from outside the US is set to dramatically alter the IT outsourcing and staffing landscape. Targeting multinational staffing firms like

, , and Cognizant, the fee is expected to dampen visa demand, accelerate offshoring, and reshape hiring strategies across the tech industry. - Disproportionate Burden on IT Staffing Giants Bloomberg analysis shows 90% of new H-1B hires at Infosys, TCS, and Cognizant were consulate-approved between May 2020–2024. Infosys alone would have paid over ₹8,600 crore ($1 billion) in visa fees for 10,400 workers. TCS and Cognizant face similar multi-hundred crore burdens. - Visa Demand Likely to Drop Sharply Legal challenges are underway, but industry observers expect a 30–50% drop in H-1B lottery entries next year. Many firms plan to skip registering consulate-bound candidates, shifting hiring to domestic graduates or overseas locations. - Offshoring and India Investment to Rise With visa costs surging, US firms are expected to boost offshore hiring and invest more in India, the primary source of H-1B talent. This trend had already begun in 2024 and is now accelerating. - Lottery Overhaul Adds Complexity The fee coincides with a proposed weighted-lottery rule, further discouraging mass registrations. The new system aims to favor higher-wage, higher-skill applicants, but may reduce access for exceptional overseas talent. - Mixed Industry Reactions and Strategic Shifts While Infosys and IBM stress continuity and evolving immigration strategies, critics like Ron Hira see the fee as a corrective step. The April 2026 lottery will be a key test of how the new incentives reshape hiring behavior.