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TrueNorth Capital

5th Feb · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Volume-Led Growth Boosts
NESTLEIND
, Margin Pressures Persist

NESTLEIND
reported its highest volume growth in nearly five years during Q3FY26, with total operating revenue rising 18.6% YoY and volume growth at 16%, beating Street estimates. The company benefited from broad-based demand recovery, increased advertising spend, and strong performance across categories. However, EBITDA margin fell to 21.2%, a multi-quarter low, due to higher input and staff costs. Growth and Segment Performance - Revenue growth: 18.6% YoY, driven by volume and mix. - Volume growth: 16% YoY, highest in nearly five years. - Strong category performance in confectionery, powdered beverages, and cooking aids. - Demand recovery supported by consumer-focused media investments. Margins and Cost Pressures - EBITDA margin: 21.2%, down from 24.9% in Q3FY24. - Margin decline attributed to higher raw material costs and staff expenses. - Analysts expect margin recovery to be gradual, contingent on input cost trends. Valuation and Market Reaction - Stock is nearing its 52-week high of ₹1,339.60, reached on 30 January. - Premium valuation sustained, but analysts advise caution due to margin compression. - Nestlé trades at a valuation premium relative to FMCG peers, reflecting defensive growth and brand strength. Strategic Outlook - Continued focus on innovation, premiumization, and rural penetration. - Management confident in sustaining growth momentum, but margin discipline remains key. - Analysts expect steady topline growth, supported by broad-based category strength and market recovery tailwinds.

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