Airtel Q2 preview: ARPU-led strength, balanced by FX and capex

’s Q2 PAT is projected to surge about 60–65% year-on-year, underpinned by steady India wireless ARPU gains, improving 4G/5G mix, and resilient Africa operations despite currency volatility. Revenue growth is expected to be mid-to-high single digits YoY, with India mobile and non-mobile (homes, enterprise) offsetting moderation in devices and seasonal softness.​ What to track * ARPU trajectory: Incremental ARPU uplift from premium migrations and higher data usage; any early read-through on industry tariff actions would be a key optional catalyst.​ * India growth engines: Homes (broadband), postpaid, and B2B services sustaining double-digit momentum, improving mix and operating leverage beyond wireless.​ * Africa watchpoints: Local-currency growth remains healthy, but translation is sensitive to naira and other FX; hedging and pricing actions to offset inflation are critical.​ * 5G monetisation: Focus on network utilisation, enterprise use-cases, and fixed wireless access pilots to outline a clearer revenue path over the next 12–18 months.​ * Capex and leverage: Normalising capex intensity after peak 5G rollout would support FCF; spectrum liabilities and net debt trajectory remain central to equity narrative.​ * Regulatory lens: AGR, floor-tariff discourse, and relief measures for sector health can shape earnings visibility and re-rating scope.​ Market view A print with ARPU improvement, stable Africa margins in local terms, and signs of capex moderation would likely be received constructively, especially if management guides to sustained FCF accretion into H2. Conversely, adverse FX in Africa or slower ARPU progression could temper the earnings delta, keeping near-term moves tied to tariff and capex commentary. Source: The Economic Times No Recommendations