ITC Q2 preview: steady core, mixed adjacencies

is expected to deliver PAT growth in the 2–11% YoY range (₹5,085–₹5,517 crore) on largely stable margins of 32–33%, with topline ranging from flat to up 15% YoY depending on brokerage mix assumptions. The spread in estimates reflects resilience in cigarettes offset by softer prints in FMCG, agri, and paper, alongside base effects and sequential seasonality into the festive quarter.​ Six things to track Cigarette volumes and pricing: Volume growth pegged near 6% YoY with disciplined pricing and a benign tax backdrop; a key swing factor for overall profitability.​ FMCG growth cadence: Branded foods and personal care seen up ~5% YoY; watch mix, gross margin trajectory, and repeat rates as rural recovery remains uneven.​ Agri outlook: Brokerage models imply ~10% YoY growth; monitor leaf tobacco and exports for sustainability of the uptick.​ Paperboards: Continued weakness from cheaper imports and global demand softness; any pricing action or demand recovery commentary is critical.​ EBITDA/margins: Consensus clusters around 32–33% with low single-digit EBITDA growth; deviations here will drive stock reaction.​ GST/taxation and regulatory signals: Stability supports volumes and illicit trade containment; any change in stance is a risk to estimates.​ Market lens A print at the upper end of PAT and revenue bands with stable cigarette volumes would likely be received constructively; misses in FMCG or margin compression from input costs could cap near-term upside. Guidance on festive demand, rural-urban divergence, and paper recovery will frame H2FY26 expectations and multiple trajectory. Source: The Economic Times No Recommendations