CHENNPETRO

Vijay Kumar Gupta SEBI-REGD. RESEARCH Analyst (INH000020226): 📌 My View If refining margins improve in Q1 and dividend approval goes through, I expect a valuation re-rating. I’m tracking volumes, GRMs, and management commentary in the July results. With decent fundamentals and strong demand tailwinds, $***** looks set for a near-term bounce. 🚨 Keeping a close eye on $***** for a short-term fundamental opportunity. Here’s why I believe the next 1–2 quarters could see positive momentum: 🔹 Refining Margins Set to Improve: Despite a YoY PAT drop in Q4, CPCL is well-positioned for recovery. With fuel demand hitting record highs and crude prices stabilizing, I expect better GRMs (Gross Refining Margins) in the June quarter. 🔹 Dividend + Cash Flow Signal: They’ve proposed a solid ₹5/share final dividend (50%) — a sign that internal cash flows remain healthy. This reflects strong operational sustainability despite profit contraction. 🔹 Capex and Retail Push: CPCL is investing ₹400+ crore into expanding retail fuel outlets across South India. This not only diversifies revenue but also signals long-term confidence — a rare positive in a cyclical sector. 🔹 Regulatory Overhang Eased: The recent NGT pollution fine (₹73 crore) has received a stay from the Madras High Court, removing a short-term legal overhang that had weighed on sentiment.