Infosys FY27 guide cut to 1 to 2%; shares at Rs 1,154

Infosys Limited reported Q2 FY27 profit of Rs 7,823 crore on 23 October and cut its FY27 revenue guide. My 25 October post treated that cut as a failed test for fresh money. The stock has since rebounded above my zone. Q2 FY27 numbers (consolidated): PAT: Rs 7,823 crore, up 6.2% YoY from Rs 7,364 crore; flat on Q1 at Rs 7,769 crore Revenue: Rs 49,244 crore, up 11% YoY and 2.1% QoQ Operating margin: 21%, unchanged FY27 constant-currency revenue guide: 1 to 2%, cut from 1.5 to 3% The cut takes the lower end below the 1.5 percent floor I set on 10 October, so the second-half test failed. The first-half zone of Rs 980 to 1,015 from my 1 October post stays in force. Infosys [][***** traded at Rs 1,154.30 at 10:06 AM IST on 5 November on StockGro (NSE closed at Rs 1,128.20 on 4 November), up 15.5 percent in a month and down 22.6 percent over a year. P/E 15.2; sector P/E near 21. My view: hold, not a fresh entry. The stock is 13.7 percent above the top of my first-half zone and 17.7 percent above my exit, so there is no price reason to add. The rebound is not new guidance. Holders stay, because the exit test is intact: exit on an NSE close below Rs 980.30. The NSE 52-week low of Rs 980.40 (4 November) sits 10 paise above that line. Fresh money waits for a close back inside Rs 980 to 1,015. The second half stays off until management quantifies the US PERM exposure, which it has not done. What would change my mind: a guidance upgrade, or a PERM cost estimate small enough to leave the margin band intact. Next trigger: Q3 FY27 results, date not yet sourced. Disclosure: Vijay Kumar Gupta, SEBI Registered Research Analyst, INH000020226, Vijay Gupta Advisory. SEBI registration and NISM certification do not guarantee performance or assure returns. Securities markets are subject to market risks. No holdings in the subject company.